Australia: WILD election campaign ahead as poll reveals Scott Morrison could win

With election 2022 nearly upon us, can we actually trust the opinion polls this time?

  With election 2022 nearly upon us, can we actually trust the opinion polls this time? There's been a lot of soul searching after opinion polls failed to predict Morrison's 2019 win, but the big question remains: will the polls be closer to the mark this time around? Ultimately we won't know until election night, but there are a couple of encouraging signs.For starters, the limited polling that was published during the recent South Australian campaign seemed to pick the result relatively accurately.The final Newspoll of the campaign, published just before polling day, missed the two-party preferred by less than one percentage points.

The Coalition got a major boost in the polls while Labor's support dipped to its lowest level in months, just hours after the federal election was called for May 21.

Scott Morrison has surged ahead as preferred prime minister over Anthony Albanese, while Labor's primary vote has dropped to its lowest point since October.

The gap between the Liberal-National Coalition and Labor is now at its closest this year and will give Mr Morrison hope of another come from behind victory in what is set to be a wild six week campaign.

In a major headache for Mr Albanese, Mr Morrison has stretched his lead as preferred prime minister to the highest point in two months.

Scott Morrison says Australia's emissions record is better than the US, NZ, Canada, Japan and many European countries. Is that correct?

  Scott Morrison says Australia's emissions record is better than the US, NZ, Canada, Japan and many European countries. Is that correct? Prime Minister Scott Morrison says Australia has reduced emissions by around 20 per cent, and that this is a better record than the US, NZ, Canada, Japan and many European countries. Is that correct? RMIT ABC Fact Check investigates. The verdictMr Morrison's claim is misleading.Most problematic with Mr Morrison's claim is the use of a 2020 figure for Australia ("around 20 per cent").Mr Morrison's figure accords with data found in Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, including land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and using 2005 as a starting year.

Scott Morrison (pictured) has got some welcome good news as the six week federal election campaign began on Sunday © Provided by Daily Mail Scott Morrison (pictured) has got some welcome good news as the six week federal election campaign began on Sunday

Mr Albanese fell three points in the category to 39 per cent while Mr Morrison rose one point to 44 per cent in the latest poll for The Australian.

Labor's primary vote has dropped a point to 37 per cent, which will be of great concern to the party as its primary vote was 41 per cent just three weeks ago.

Its current support of 37 per cent is the same number it had at the start of the 2019 election campaign, which the Coalition won despite all published polls saying it would lose.

The Coalition's primary vote is now just one point behind Labor's at 36 per cent.

Support for minor parties and independents has increased to 27 per cent thanks to Clive Palmer's United Australia Party rising to 4 per cent after weeks of wall to wall political advertising.

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THE NUMBERS

House of Representatives (151 members)

23 Liberal National Party of Queensland

43 Liberal Party of Australia

10 National Party

(76 in total for Coalition government)

68 Australian Labor Party

1 Australian Greens (Adam Bandt)

1 Centre Alliance (Rebekha Sharkie)

1 United Australia Party (Craig Kelly)

3 Independent (Zali Steggall, Andrew Wilkie, Helen Haines)

1 Katter's Australian Party (Bob Katter)

In the 2019 election the billionaire Mr Palmer outspent both the government and the Labor opposition and seems set to do so again this time.

The Greens and One Nation remain steady on 10 per cent and 3 per cent respectively, while 'others' - which mostly means independent candidates - are also on 10 per cent.

The fall in Labor's primary vote has resulted in a one-point gain for the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis, though Labor still has an election winning 53-47 lead.

Scott Morrison vows to serve his entire term if he wins the election

  Scott Morrison vows to serve his entire term if he wins the election Prime Minister Scott Morrison said 'of course I do, there's a lot to do' when asked if he would commit to serving his entire term, rather than handing over, as he called an election for May 21.The Coalition leader finally called the election date on Sunday, after three tumultuous years for the economy, a pandemic, and global security.

If this was replicated in all 151 lower-house seats on election day, the ­Coalition could lose up to 10 lower house seats, giving Labor a narrow victory.

The improved numbers for the Coalition and for Mr Morrison personally have followed a tough week for the Prime Minister.

Not only was he the subject of bitter infighting within the Liberal Party, he was also publicly berated by a pensioner in the NSW city of Newcastle.

Mr Morrison's approval rating is unchanged in the latest poll, with 42 per cent of voters approving of his performance as Prime Minister, while 54 per cent were ­dissatisfied.

But Mr Albanese suffered a second consecutive fall in personal approval, with a one-point drop to 42.

There was also a one-point rise to 45 per cent in those dissatisfied by the Labor leader's performance.

Anthony Albanese (pictured) has suffered a second consecutive fall in personal approval, with a one-point drop to 42 © Provided by Daily Mail Anthony Albanese (pictured) has suffered a second consecutive fall in personal approval, with a one-point drop to 42 Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his wife Jenny Morrison at an event in 2019 © Provided by Daily Mail Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his wife Jenny Morrison at an event in 2019

Speaking on ABC News on Sunday night, Mr Morrison said Australians would be 'risking it all' if they voted for Labor.

Anthony Albanese says Australians deserves better than Scott Morrison

  Anthony Albanese says Australians deserves better than Scott Morrison Opposition leader Anthony Albanese has vowed to never 'go missing' if he is elected Prime Minister in a sly dig at Scott Morrison for taking a holiday in Hawaii during the 2019-2020 bushfires.Mr Albanese took the opportunity to slam the prime minister during his pitch to replace him in the country's top job in Canberra on Sunday.

He said the election was not about him. 'It's about you, who are watching, and your priorities, and ensuring that your job, your future, training for young people right across the country, the investment in the infrastructure that we're delivering a stronger economy, delivering that stronger future.'

Mr Albanese appeared on SBS News on Sunday, where he said his focus is on building a stronger future.

'We need to have a better future … we need a government that addresses the challenges of the present by anticipating and creating a better future,' he said.

What are the key issues at this election?

COVID-19: Scott Morrison has been labelled 'SloMo' over delays in the vaccine rollout, and the 'prime minister for NSW' over his attitude towards the states' handling of the pandemic. But will voters credit him for Australia's internationally-low rate of severe illness and death? Or will voters hand Anthony Albanese the job of leading the post-pandemic health and economic recovery?

BUDGET AND ECONOMY: The jobless rate has remained low despite the pandemic and the economy is on a sound footing. But under-employment is high and the rate of casual and insecure work is of concern to many Australians. And government debt is at unprecedented levels with no prospect of being repaid any time soon. Inflation has many concerned, with an interest rate hike looming.

Scott Morrison pulls ahead of Anthony Albanese in latest poll

  Scott Morrison pulls ahead of Anthony Albanese in latest poll The latest Newspoll showed Opposition leader Anthony Albanese fell three points to 39 per cent while prime minister Scott Morrison Morrison rose a point to 44 per cent. The prime minister's favouritism may have put him in the lead but Mr Morrison still faces one major obstacle with his party trailing behind the preferred Labor party. Labor remains in poll position despite a further fall in popular support with its primary vote dropping to 37 per cent on top of a three-point fall last week. The coalition's primary vote remains unchanged on a low 36 per cent.

TAXES: Scott Morrison insists he will drive down taxes on workers and businesses and the coalition is best placed to keep taxes low over the long term. Labor's immediate priority is dealing with multinational tax avoidance, but the coalition is seeking to convince voters a Labor budget would contain hidden nasties.

CLIMATE: The coalition and Labor are committed to net-zero emissions by 2050. Labor has a more ambitious medium-term target than the coalition. The issue has effectively been neutralised as a debating point, but a coalition campaign over Labor pushing up power prices can be expected. Independent candidates backed by Climate 200 are campaigning on doing more than either of the major parties.

BORDERS: The coalition says Labor's soft stance on border protection will reopen the people smuggling trade and result in deaths at sea and a major cost blowout on detention centres. Labor says it supports boat turnbacks and offshore processing but will do so in a more humane way.

HEALTH: The coalition has boosted hospital funding for the states and territories. Labor says it will restore funding to the system and the coalition can't be trusted with Medicare.

EDUCATION: The school funding debate seems to have settled. But Labor argues universities have been left to die by the coalition, especially as the international student market dried up during the pandemic.

NATIONAL SECURITY: The coalition says it is best placed to handle terrorism, China and other threats to national security and is more willing than Labor to enact laws to give greater powers to police and intelligence agencies. Labor says national security is a bipartisan priority, but wants to ensure there are proper checks and balances in any new powers.

The single thing that could help Scott Morrison win the election

  The single thing that could help Scott Morrison win the election Scott Morrison could win the election with a campaign on interest rates after Labor leader Anthony Albanese failed to answer a simple question on borrowing.The prime minister is the clear underdog with his Liberal-National Coalition having a primary vote of just 34 per cent, a big drop from 41 per cent at the 2019 election, a Resolve Political Monitor poll found.

INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS: The coalition is taking a hands-off approach when it comes to the Fair Work Commission's decision-making, which now has more employer-focused personnel. It also warns of Labor being dictated to by the unions. Labor says the existing system needs reform as workers are not benefiting from economic growth, in terms of higher wages, and casuals are being exploited.

INTEGRITY: The government has long-promised a Commonwealth Integrity Commission but argues Labor stood in its way. Labor says a national integrity commission with teeth is needed. The debate has given impetus to independent candidates targeting Liberal seats.

WOMEN: Scott Morrison was forced into doing more to address women's safety when Brittany Higgins went public with an allegation of being raped in a minister's office, and Christian Porter defended an accusation of historic assault which he firmly denies. Labor argues it is best placed to deal with women's safety and empowerment and is more committed than the coalition to running female candidates in winnable seats.

Mr Albanese kicked off the election campaign as comfortable favourite to become Prime Minister with his party leading by a large eight points in the polls.

But pundits predict that gap will narrow and we'll be in for close race that could go down to the wire with just a few seats deciding the result.

Prime Minister Morrison's Liberal-National Coalition has 76 seats in the House of Representatives, the exact amount needed for a majority government, while Labor has 68.

Top on the list of potential gains for Labor is the new seat of Hawke to the north-west of Melbourne. If they win it, the ALP must steal seven more from the Coalition.

This map shows some of the key marginal seats held by Labor (in red) and the Coalition (in blue) with the percentage margin. There are other seats in contention, with a fuller list below © Provided by Daily Mail This map shows some of the key marginal seats held by Labor (in red) and the Coalition (in blue) with the percentage margin. There are other seats in contention, with a fuller list below

Mr Albanese is targeting seats in all states but particularly in WA and Queensland where the Coalition is at a high water mark and Labor massively under performed in 2019.

There is a real possibility that nobody wins the required 76 seats, resulting in a hung parliament and making a motley assortment of independent MPs kingmakers.

In that scenario, Mr Albanese can rely on the support of Greens member Adam Bandt and left-leaning independent Andrew Wilkie, while the Coalition will have Bob Katter and probably three other economically conservative independents to call upon.

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