Virginia governor's race between Youngkin and McAuliffe: what to know
Why the hotly contested Virginia gubernatorial race between former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin has national implications.The face-off is seen as a key bellwether ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, when the GOP aims to win back majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate.
Online bettors have flipped on their predictions for the Virginia gubernatorial race, with Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin surging in the days before the election, while Democratic former Gov. Terry McAuliffe fades.
The line for the Old Dominion gubernatorial race on online betting service PredictIt flipped in favor of Youngkin on Friday, days ahead of Election Day in the race considered to be the 2022 congressional election cycle bellwether.
McAuliffe lost his commanding lead in the betting pool swiftly, with Youngkin's lead widening sizably by Monday.
MCAULIFFE EVENTS SEE SMALL CROWDS DAYS BEFORE VIRGINIA ELECTION
Virginia parents to McAuliffe: Our concerns aren't just a 'divisive' Youngkin campaign tactic
Virginia parents speaking to Fox News on Wednesday condemned some recent comments by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe as "insulting" and "dismissive."Last week, McAuliffe dismissed parents' concerns about education in the commonwealth as being part of a "divisive tactic" "generated by his Republican opponent, Glenn Youngkin.
Maxim Lott, the founder of ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News in a Monday email that, for most of the race, "bettors thought McAuliffe would win because Virginia has been a blue state in recent years."
"Since 2004, only Democrats have won Virginia at the presidential, Senate, or gubernatorial levels," said Lott, who periodically reports for Fox News. He noted that "one exception" was the election of former GOP Gov. Robert McDonnell in 2009. "However, with Election Day nearing, bettors now give Youngkin a slight edge."
Video: McAuliffe, Youngkin in tight race for Virginia governor (FOX News)
"The shift in the betting odds over the last month moved along with voters, who changed their minds largest based on education policy," Lott continued. "A Washington Post poll found that in September, voters who care most about education favored McAuliffe dramatically, by 33 points. Now those voters favor Youngkin."
Glenn Youngkin: What to know about the GOP Virginia governor candidate
Republican Glenn Youngkin, a wealthy 54-year-old Virginia former private equity executive, married father of four, and political newcomer is on the ballot to be Virginia's next governor on Nov. 2.Youngkin was born in Richmond, Virginia, in 1966 to father Caroll Youngkin, an accountant and star basketball player at Duke University, and mother Ellis Youngkin, a teacher, author and nursing Ph.D. Youngkin grew up in Richmond and Virginia Beach and was the star of his Norfolk High basketball team before graduating high school in 1985 and enrolling at Houston’s Rice University, where he studied engineering and played four years of Division 1 basketball.
"Historically, betting odds are the best single predictor of election outcomes, because bettors are 'putting money where their mouth is' and so they have every incentive to make the right call," he also wrote.
As of Monday, Youngkin bets are sitting at 55 cents while McAuliffe’s betting price is 49 cents.
According to the data, McAuliffe's betting price straddled the high 70s and low 80s over the past 90 days, with a sharp drop illustrating bettors' declining confidence in McAuliffe to pull off a win.
Conversely, Youngkin’s betting prices were stuck in the mid-20s for the same time period, shooting up in popularity over the last few days of the election.
Polls, meanwhile, have similarly shown Youngkin's numbers surging and McAuliffe's numbers plummeting.
The latest Fox News poll shows McAuliffe receives 45% to Youngkin's 53% in a survey of likely voters. Youngkin's eight-point advantage is outside the poll's margin of sampling error.
How Virginia Democrats Fell Victim to History .
And what needs to happen for the president’s party to have any shot at victory in 2022 and 2024The Republican victory in the Virginia gubernatorial race and the unexpectedly close result in New Jersey’s—both states Biden won comfortably last year—don’t guarantee a midterm wipeout for Democrats in 2022. Rather, the sweeping Republican advance in both states more likely previews the problems Democrats will have next November if the political environment doesn’t improve for Biden.