The West has a few bargaining chips to stop Russia from invading Ukraine
About 100,000 Russian troops have been spotted at the Ukrainian border.Although US and NATO leadership have both expressed a strong desire for a diplomatic path forward, more aggressive options to support Ukrainian sovereignty against Russian aggression, including major trade restrictions, are reportedly on the table.
is Russia behind cyberattacks against Ukraine on Friday? If yes, why ? If not, who? These attacks, which raise a lot of questions about their authors and intentions, confirm in any case their major place in contemporary geopolitical crises.
even before any evidence being gathered, Russia, suspected by Westerners to prepare the invasion of its neighbor , is in their viewfinder after blocking Ukrainian government websites. "The attack can not be imputed because we have no evidence, but we can imagine "which is behind, said Friday Josep Borrell, the head of the European diplomacy, convening" an emergency meeting of the ambassadors of the political and security committee of the "EU". NATO announced shortly after the signature with Ukraine of an agreement on strengthening their cooperation against cyberattacks. Who is behind the attack?
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However, the assignment of such attacks is of great complexity. It is possible to identify a method and a language, a computer and possibly its location. But how to know who was sitting behind and for which client? John Hultquist, a head of the intelligence analysis of the Mandic Cybersecurity Corporation, believes that "this incident could come from government actors, actors to the service of governments or elements of independent civil society". The operation is technically quite simple to execute "even if an incident striking several targets at the same time may appear at first sight as a complex and advanced operation," he explains to the AFP, inviting "not to overestimate" The capacity necessary for the implementation of this attack.
Has diplomacy on Ukraine reached a dead end?
Has diplomacy on Ukraine reached a dead end?Russia stands accused of having massed some 100,000 troops close to the Ukrainian border, as it seeks a commitment from the West that the pro-EU former Soviet state will never join NATO.
In a report published last June, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) of London was that most states kept controlling their cyberview capabilities. But, he added, "some governments - Russia and Iran in particular - are more tolerant with patriotic hackers and cyber-criminal groups operating from their territory, sometimes even in coordination with them".
The inexorable climb of Cyber
The immediate reactions of the EU and NATO testify to what in all Chancelleries and staff of the world, cyber is considered a major element of the new world order . "A new space of conflict, we are today to question the existence of a cold war in cyberspace," said French Minister Florence Parly in September. In his report, IISS also found that cyberspace had become, "perhaps inevitably, a new key and risky environment of politics and competition between states in the 21st century". According to the institute, the states "are only in the premises of their understanding of the phenomenon". As far as "a cyber attack can precede a high-intensity attack, but it can also be combined with more conventional ways during operations," Julien Nocetti, Researcher in Geode, the digital research institute Paris 8.
The contours of a 3.0
Kiev: Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock secures Ukraine in conflict with Russia Support to
in the midst of the conflict between Russia and NATO Foreign Minister Baerbock traveled to Kiev. At the press conference she secured Diplomatic support to Ukraine. © Janine Schmitz / photothek.de / Imago Images / Photothek When visiting Ukraine , Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has struck a sharp tone towards the Russian government. Any aggression from Russia has "a high price," Baerbock said in Kiev , "economically, politically and strategically".
conflict of fact, the digitization of the world has been faster than the setting up of adapted defenses. What drawing a boulevard for the Cyber War. "It is the new reality, a world in which piracy - and all the other forms of non-kinetic attacks, of misinformation to the subversion - combine with a kinetic conflict or constitute an alternative", esteem Mark Galeotti , a specialist researcher of the
Russia . "The particular stake is that, as in Ukraine today, we often ignore, until it is too late, if these methods are or not used in the framework a military operation ". Because it is precisely because a cyber attack is difficult to attribute that it maintains the blur on the intentions of its author. "Cyber really helps to blur the traditional benchmarks between war and peace," says Julien NoCetti. In this case, in Ukraine, "we do not know very well in which phase we are". In any case, the incident should, in any case, extend the discussions between Moscow and Washington in favor of a cyberspace protected by standards. "We will start at a more confrontal positioning of the two parties towards this file, One of the hottest of the moment with the issue of arms control, "says this researcher.
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Ukraine: The United States orders the evacuation of Diplomats .
© Martial Trezzini / Keystone / EPA Ukraine, USA, Russia, Evacuation, Embassy, Diplomacy C 'is a new important step in the aggravating tensions between United States and Russia , on the background of Ukrainian crisis: Sunday, January 23, Washington announced to order the families of American diplomats installed in Kiev to leave the country, citing "the persistent threat of a Russian military operation. The State Department also offered local and non-essential staff to leave the embassy.