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Enthusiasts: China will she invade Taiwan? : probably "not in the coming months", according to Bruno Tirtrais

National Day in Taiwan: "We take responsibility for our defense"

 National Day in Taiwan: © Reuters - Ann Wang The President of Taiwan Tsai Ing -Wen during her speech for the country's national holiday, October 10, 2022. Taiwan, Archipelago of 24 million inhabitants located off the Chinese coast, celebrates its national holiday this October 10. The ceremony takes place this year in a particularly tense context with China. Beijing again recalled its firm intention to annex Taiwan last week.

despite everything, a "strong possibility for the current decade"

but for Bruno Trtrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research and Guest of Lionel Gougelot this Wednesday Morning on Europe 1, "nobody expects China Taiwan to attack in the coming weeks or months, but it remains a very strong possibility for the current decade". Since 1949 and the establishment of the People's Republic of China, Taiwan has been independent but continues to apply the Constitution of the Republic of China, created in 1912. A status refuted by successive Chinese communist governments.

For the researcher, all these maneuvers "are signs but are not particularly disturbing. It is a sign of the dissatisfaction of Beijing, of the will of popular China to put pressure on Taiwan, but there is absolutely nothing Who allows you to say that Beijing is preparing for a major military operation in Taiwan. "

What scenarios if China decided to invade Taiwan?

 What scenarios if China decided to invade Taiwan? © Reuters - Ann Wang Taiwanese soldiers during a military exercise, September 21, 2022. if Beijing decided to invade Taiwan, it would be the most complex military campaign to implement, with risks high failures and massive losses. To have a chance to overwhelm the Taiwanese forces, the Liberation People's Army should send more than a million soldiers on the other side of the Formosa Strait, a perilous operation that would require perfect coordination between its navy and its aviation .

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if, in his official speech, Taiwanese leaders say they are ready in the event of a Chinese invasion, for Bruno Trtrais, "we are not in a situation analogous to that of Ukraine in the previous months the Russian invasion. It is normal that Taipei mobilizes the population to prevent this from happening, to dissuade Beijing and report to China and the United States that the island is ready to resist ".

"Taiwan draws lessons from the war in Ukraine"

for the researcher, an invasion in the coming months seems unlikely but, to dissuade Beijing, "Taiwan takes the necessary measures, adapts his army, pulls lessons From what is happening in Ukraine and prepares for it, "he said at the microphone of Europe 1.

all the more since on the side of China, the leader Xi Jinping continues to" officially consider Taiwan Like the 23rd Chinese province. For the Chinese Communist Party, it is out of the question that for the anniversary of the People's Republic in 2049, Taiwan was not fully returned in the Beijing fold, "said Bruno Trtrais. "Xi Jinping has made it a major objective and has adopted a law saying that, regardless of the means, Taiwan will have to return to the fold of the motherland."

"On the side of Beijing, the question is not whether [Taiwan will reintegrate China, editor's note], but when" concluded the researcher at the microphone of Europe 1.

New US security strategy: China greatest challenge

 New US security strategy: China greatest challenge Despite the Russian attack war in Ukraine and nuclear threats from Moscow, the USA sees China as the greater geopolitical challenge. "Beijing wants to expand its sphere of influence in the Indopazacific region and become the leading power of the world," says the new strategy for national security that the US government published in Washington on Wednesday.

Russian-Chinese maneuvers: "Show the world that Russia is not isolated" .
© Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP A Corvette from the Russian Navy leaving for the joint naval maneuvers with China, December 19, 2022. Russia was to start this Wednesday, and for eight days, military maneuvers with the Chinese Navy. The place: the East China Sea, east of Shanghai, in a very strategic space: in the south Taiwan, in the east Japan and north South Korea. Officially, the two countries want to strengthen their naval coordination, also strengthen security in the area.

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