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© Arne Dedert/dpa Since the beginning of November, the gold price has grown again. If interest rates in the United States no longer rise and the US dollar loses value, "Gold can shine again in 2023," said raw material expert Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank. In the annual outlook of the World Gold Council (WGC) industry association, the interaction between inflation and action of the central banks will be decisive.
2022 The gold price was ultimately at a high level thanks to partly record -high inflation rates, an impending energy crisis and the war in Ukraine. At times it was just below the record high of the summer of 2020 ($ 2075). After a descent from May to September because of the strong interest rate and dollars, the precious metal, which is valued by investors as a crisis currency, has been noticeable since the beginning of November. Since then, the price has increased by almost $ 200 per troy olar to $ 1800.
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The cause of this increase is mainly due to the US Federal Reserve, which has already switched back a gear in the fight against high inflation. The hope of a somewhat less aggressive approach by the US Federal Reserve against the high inflation has been burdening the dollar since November. Since gold is traded in dollars on the world market, the American currency under the price makes the precious metal cheaper, which drives demand.
What does the US Federal Reserve do?
Among economists is certain that inflation in the United States has exceeded the climax. Nevertheless, the Fed will continue to increase interest rates in 2023, it is said. The crucial question on the gold market is: When will the Fed stop the interest rate increases, and is already to be expected again in 2023 with falling interest?
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The interest summit in the United States is currently expected at around five percent, which is likely to be reached in the coming spring. Then economists expect a phase in which interest rates remain stable until they are allowed to decrease again against the background of a weak economy.
"This could be the case in the second half of the year, because then inflation has dropped far enough and the US economy has been in a recession since the beginning of the year," said Fritsch. If this actually occurs, a slightly increasing gold price can be expected. Fritsch expects a gold price of $ 1850 per troy ounce (31.1 grams) at the end of 2023.
Analysts surveyed by the Bloomberg news agency assume that the gold price should be $ 18 at the end of 2023 at the end of 2023. The range ranges from $ 1,600, which are expected by raw material experts from the Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, up to 1900 dollars with which experts from Deutsche Bank expect.
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“Geopolitical unrest potential”
, according to the World Gold Council, there is other factors in addition to US money policy that are likely to support the gold price 2023. The WGC experts referred to the “geopolitical unrest potential”. In addition, a better economy in China is expected, which should also support the demand for the precious metal. On the other hand, comparatively high returns on government bonds could slow down the demand for gold. Because with rising interest rates, bonds become an ever larger competitor in search of investors for secure systems.
Fritsch pointed out that Gold lost much less in 2022 than shares, government bonds or cryptocurrencies. "In this challenging year, investors were able to secure most of their assets with gold in this challenging year." Calculated in euros, the gold price even reached a record high in the crisis year 2022 when 1902 euros were temporarily paid for the ounce in March. Fritsch: In the annual point of view, “gold investors in Europe can look forward to a profit”.
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