Canada: COVID-19: The Sanitary Pass has avoided 4,000 deaths in France and save six billion euros, according to an

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study "One in four has decided to be vaccinated through the sanitary pass "In France, abound the authors of the study.

  Covid-19 : le pass sanitaire a permis d'éviter 4 000 morts en France et d'économiser six milliards d'euros, selon une étude © Provided by FranceInfo

The Sanitary Pass has avoided 4,000 people of CVIV-19 in France, to avoid the loss of six billion euros between July and December 2021 and to increase the vaccination coverage of 13 percentage points, according to a study conducted by independent researchers and published Tuesday, January 18th by the Economic Analysis Council, which advises Matignon.

"We expected an effect but it is more important than expected," recognizes the Mathematician-economist at Paris-Dauphine University and co-author of the study, Miquel Oliu-Barton, invited on Franceinfo. Nevertheless, "we were not completely surprised because there was a public health investigation France at the end of the summer that said that there was about one in four who declared to have decided to Get vaccinated thanks to the sanitary pass ".

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France, Germany and Italy compared

to do this study, researchers analyzed and compared French, German and Italian data to estimate the "counter-factual vaccination rate", that is to say How vaccination has evolved without the sanitary pass, comparing it to a combination of fairly similar countries. "We can look at what's becoming this combination of countries in terms of vaccination, GDP, demography and watching France, from July 2," explains the mathematician.

While vaccination has increased only six points in Germany, Miquel Oliu-Barton notes that there is "a heterogeneity" by country: "The way the sanitary pass has been announced and adopted is not the Even. In France, this was done by a very borne ad, very centralized and very clear who had a tremendous impact right away, while in Germany, this measure was made Land by Land according to criteria and the Respect was not always quite checked. "

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"In Germany, for example, the effect of the sanitary pass was lower until the end of November, when Germany adopted the unitary pass in the workplaces throughout the national territory. From there, from there, It takes off the same as home. "

Miquel Oliu-Barton, Mathematician-Economist, co-author of the study

in FranceInfo

It also notes a "heterogeneity" by age group since it "there was about 9 percentage points of vaccinated in More among people over 60 in France, compared to 4.5% in Italy. This explains that the effect on health and health consequences has been more important in France ".

Researchers took into account the rate of vaccine protection, the quantity of this or that vaccine deployed, the transmissions of viruses, how many people would have been hospitalized or would be dead without the sanitary pass, and concluded 4,000 people on The same period in France.

six billion saved, "an indication"

Finally, the study used an econometric tool that compares the data of 40 OECD countries and G20, looking "a hundred indicators of economic activity, namely Mobility, Internet searches, consumption ", which makes it possible to" a quite robust statistical estimate on the impact of each point of vaccination in addition to GDP ".

"We arrive at an average effect which is 0.052 point of GDP by vaccination point. For France, since it is happening with 13 points of vaccination in addition, and if we do not just look at the effect At the end of the year, but the cumulative effect over the whole period, one arrives at a number that must be taken obviously as an indication, in any case it seems the good order of magnitude, 6 billion euros spared through the sanitary pass, "he concludes.

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© Pascal Pochard-Casabianca / AFP Will France follow the same path as Denmark? Will she raise her sanitary restrictions from February 1st or in the coming days? Professor Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and director of the Geneva Global Health Institute was the guest of Europe Midi Thursday to evoke this potential decision. The Denmark , which knows how France a record number of contaminations at COVID-19, lifts sanitary restrictions from February 1st.

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