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the prices for residential real estate in Germany rise in record speed. In the third quarter, apartments and houses increased by average of 12 percent measured in the same period of the previous year, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Wednesday. © Jens Kalaene / dpa central picture / dpa Even the pandemic has not stopped the real estate boom in Germany - for the chagrin of tenants and home buyers.
That's the second time in a row the greatest price increase since the beginning of the time series in 2000. Not only in big cities, but also in the countryside, the prices shoot high.
Already in the second quarter, the Wiesbaden statisticians had calculated an increase of 10.8 percent - this rate has now surpassed despite corona crisis. The boom alerts economists: The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) warned against a burst of real estate bubbles in some cities.
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An increase of 14.5 percent for houses and apartments established the Federal Office in the seven largest cities Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt, Stuttgart and Dusseldorf. But even in sparsely populated rural circles, prices rose rapidly: There were one and two-family houses around 15.5 percent at the same quarter of the previous year and condominiums by 11.2 percent.
in densely populated rural circles, housing and house prices also raised strongly: one- and two-family houses at average 12 percent more than in the same quarter of the previous year and condominiums 12.3 percent.
Many factors for rising prices
Low interest rates, scarce living room, lack of investment alternatives just for large investors and a robust economy have been driving the real estate boom for a long time. At the same time, expensive material such as wood, cement and steel as well as scarce capacities in the construction industry are high. With the pandemic and the trend to the HomeOffice real estate are also increasingly in demand in the countryside.
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After more than a decade of rising prices, the DIW now holds larger "price corrections" in Berlin, Munich, Hamburg in the coming years, but also in other major cities and uni- Cities possible. There could be sinking, but also stagnating prizes, said Study author Konstantin Kholodilin. The speculative exaggerations are sewing. Affected are particularly condominiums and building plots in large cities.
«The signs are more likely to explain home prices in some cities and market segments alone through the development of rents and low interest rates," said Kholodilin. "In the next few years, it can come there for price corrections, so for bursting real estate price bubbles.» However, the experience of other countries shows that the prices when bursting a bubble did not fall as deep as they had been previously.
The DIW evaluated data from the 114 largest German cities. According to this year, buying prices for residential property rose for nine percent this year, but the rents grew about only half as strong. This continued the trend of ten previous years. The increasing disassembled signs indicate speculation bubbles, it said. In many cases, explosive patterns were shown in price development.
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No danger to the financial system
The risk of a nationwide real estate bubble is manageable. Overall, houses are solid financed. There is nothing to danger to financial stability through burdening price bubbles. In addition, the gap between supply and demand on the housing market becomes smaller.
warnings before bubbles have been in the real estate boom often - but prices rose again and more. From 2010 to 2020, used condos dwelled by 85 percent and one- and two-family houses by 75 percent, as recently the market report of the official expert committees showed. They also keep the markets in the metropolises overheated. The prices also attracted to the North and Baltic Sea as well as in the Alpine foreland.
also the Bundesbank warned for years from overheating. "According to our calculations, residential real estate prices are 10 to 30 percent above the value justified by fundamental data. We are increasingly seeing outside the metropolitan areas, "said Vice President Claudia book in November.
Due to the rising prices, more and more people have the view of their own four walls, warned the DIW. Short-time allowance and other services have so far taken care of the most households could pay their rent. "To prevent disturbances in the real estate market, state Corona help should not be reduced too early," the economists recommend.
Real estate credits are still low, but less accessible .
is above all the rising prices that will make buying more difficult in the coming months, while banks look more carefully at the records. While the US Central Bank has prepared the spirits for a rise in interest rates, in Europe the subject is still not relevant, despite the rise in inflation. Consequence, immovable credits rates remain at an incredibly low level.