Money: Bundesbank President expects ECB-Balance reduction

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Frankfurt (Reuters) in early 2023-from the perspective of Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, the ECB is expected to begin dismantling their busy balance in the first months of the new year.

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At the December interest session, a joint understanding of the euro currency keepers is important to him that the balance sheet loss is part of monetary policy tightening, said Nagel on Monday evening in the International Club Frankfurt business journalist (ICFW). "And then I firmly assume that this will start in the first quarter at the beginning of 2023." At the ECB's interest rate meeting on December 15, Nagel also expects a significant interest rate.

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The balance of the Euro-Notenbank has now swollen to around nine trillion euros. The accumulated bond stocks alone are around five trillion euros. When cutting out the balance sheet, Nagel initially has the older purchase program app in view, with which the ECB wanted to push the economy in the years after 2015. So far, the ECB leaking bonds from this program still replaces completely. According to Nagel, it could now be started not to completely replace bonds. "This is also an exemplary, for a gradual degradation of the balance sheet."

The Pandemie program Pepp will then tackle the ECB later. "Of course you have to go there at some point, but if you start with the app program now, that's an important step," said Nagel. So far, the ECB has promised to completely replace the league from the Pepp program until at least in late 2024. Overall, the balance sheet reduction will be a very long distance, said Nagel.

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Nagel: "Also 50 basis points are strong interest rate"

for the ECB session in December, the Bundesbank President expects a strong rate increase. "We have preceded relatively robust and will now have to be robust again in December, always dependent on data." The currency huts will have new projections of the central bank economists in the interest rate meeting on the economic and inflation development. He did not participate in the discussion as to whether an increase of 0.50 or 0.75 percentage points is appropriate. This is also not helpful. "There are also 50 basis points a strong interest step," said Nagel. In his view, the ECB with the current interest rate level is still relatively far from the so -called restrictive area, in which an economy is slowed down.

The ECB initiated the turning point in July and has now raised two percentage points three times. In September and October, it increased the interest exceptionally vigorously by 0.75 percentage points each. The deposit rate that banks get from the central bank for parking for parking is currently 1.5 percent. For comparison: the restrictive interest rate level is currently located by economists in the deposit rate above two percent.

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Up to which interest rate the ECB has to raise its key rates in the fight against high inflation, is open. "I can't tell you where the train ride will end," said Nagel. With inflation rates of well over ten percent, something still has to happen. Inflation in the euro area had climbed to 10.6 percent in October - the highest level since the beginning of the monetary union. It is more than five times as high as the ECB inflation goal of two percent.

Nagel considers it correct that the ECB no longer relies as much on economic models in view of the uncertain economic situation and pays more attention to current data and market prices. He does not expect the inflation with a rapid subscription. Inflation will remain high in 2023, he said. "And possibly in 2024 we won't be where we would actually want to go, namely close to the two percent again." Inflation is a stubborn event. "We just have to be a little more persistent."

(Report by Frank Sieelt, edited by Hans Seidenstücker; If you have any questions, please contact our editorial team at [email protected] (for politics and economy) or [email protected] (for companies and markets). )

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