Bowl projections: College Football Playoff race down to eight teams
Two weeks remain in the regular season and the College Football Playoff picture is clearing up. The latest bowl projections have a clear top four.As the season winds down, the possibilities shrink and contenders fall out. Neither Oregon nor Michigan State were favored on the road last weekend, so their defeats were not surprising. The only unexpected part of the result was how thoroughly they were beaten. The Ducks would need a miracle to get back into the race, while the Spartans are eliminated from the Big Ten title and have a ceiling for their ranking.
The one team everyone thought was unbeatable all season long proved it is, in fact, fallible.
Top-ranked, 12-0 Georgia entered Saturday's SEC championship as a 6.5-point favorite over No. 3 Alabama. The Bulldogs boasted the clear No. 1 defense in the country with an offense that was efficient and effective. None of that mattered against Nick Saban, Bryce Young and Alabama, which beat Georgia 41-24 to give the Bulldogs their first loss of the season.
TOP-10 LOSSES: Georgia | Oklahoma State
That raises the question: What happens to Georgia now? With their loss, it seems Alabama will take over the No. 1 spot. Michigan's 42-13 win over Iowa should secure it the No. 2 position. Cincinnati, the last undefeated team in the FBS, deserves its playoff shot. Now, does the Bulldogs' SEC championship loss create a potential path to the playoff for 11-1 Notre Dame and 11-2 Big 12 champion Baylor?
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Georgia was considered a lock for the College Football Playoff entering Saturday's game, even with a loss. No one expected the Crimson Tide to beat Kirby Smart and Co., especially as handily as they did. But the Bulldogs' body of work should still be enough to grant them entry into the College Football Playoff. The only question is if they fall to No. 3 or No. 4.
Sporting News breaks down how, even with its loss, Georgia should not worry about getting jumped by either of Notre Dame or Baylor following conference championship weekend:
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CFP credentials: Georgia vs. Notre Dame vs. Baylor
|Team ||Record ||Conference title |
|Georgia ||12-1 ||No |
|Notre Dame ||11-1 ||N/A |
|Baylor ||11-2 ||Yes (Big 12) |
Georgia has the most wins. The Bulldogs' record will likely be more closely compared to Notre Dame's considering both teams have one loss, but the Bulldogs have the added benefit of playing during conference championship weekend while the Fighting Irish remained idle.
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The Bears are the only team that can boast a conference championship, but that likely won't amount to much considering they have two losses. In the playoff era, only one prerequisite has remained constant: You cannot lose two games. That unwritten rule cost Penn State (2016) and Ohio State (2017) and will likely cost the Bears in 2021.
Rankings reflect loss at time of defeat
|Team ||Record ||Score |
|Georgia ||No. 3 Alabama ||41-24 |
|Notre Dame ||No. 7 Cincinnati ||24-13 |
|Baylor ||No. 19 Oklahoma State ||24-14 |
|TCU ||30-28 |
Again, Georgia ranks ahead of Notre Dame and (especially) Baylor in terms of best loss. Alabama, ranked No. 3 at the time it beat Georgia, will undoubtedly be the top-ranked team in the playoff on Sunday, which will stand out prominently for the Bulldogs' playoff record. Notre Dame also has a loss against a playoff opponent in No. 4 Cincinnati, but lost that game at home when the Bearcats were ranked No. 7 in the country.
SEC championship: No. 2 Alabama thumps No. 1 Georgia 41-24, eliminates any question about playoff qualification
The same team that needed a near-miracle just a week ago to come from behind against Auburn blew the doors off the nation's best defense.With its College Football Playoff hopes on the line against a No. 1-ranked Georgia team that had carried an aura of dominance around the Southeastern Conference for the last three months, Alabama delivered one more jolt to a season of chaos with a 41-24 win at Mercedes-Benz Stadium that should cement the Crimson Tide as the No. 1 seed heading into Sunday’s playoff selections.
Meanwhile, Baylor avenged one of its only two losses of the year when it beat No. 5 Oklahoma State in a rematch of its 24-14 defeat earlier in the season, ranked No. 19 at the time. Had that been the Bears' only loss of the year, they very well could have jumped into the top four — or, at least, had a better claim to move up. But that Week 10 loss to a 3-9 TCU team is killer. Even if it was Baylor's only loss, it simply doesn't compare to Georgia or Notre Dame's.
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Wins over ranked opponents
Rankings reflect Week 14 CFP top 25 rankings
|Team ||Ranked wins ||Teams beaten ||Score |
|Georgia ||Three ||No. 20 Clemson ||10-3 |
|No. 22 Arkansas ||37-0 |
|No. 23 Kentucky ||30-13 |
|Notre Dame ||Zero ||— ||— |
|Baylor ||Three ||No. 5 Oklahoma State ||21-16 |
|No. 12 BYU ||38-24 |
|No. 14 Oklahoma ||27-14 |
Georgia claims the same number of ranked wins as Baylor (three) while Notre Dame claims none. Like the Bulldogs, the Bears have one one-possession victory and two two-possession victories. But the Bears' wins are currently ranked higher than Georgia's, and have a better overall record than Georgia's (31-6 vs. 26-10).
Opinion: Georgia's soft underbelly exposed, but does the playoff committee have the chops to send the Bulldogs home?
After watching Georgia’s no-show against Alabama in the SEC title game, does the playoff committee have the guts to tell the Bulldogs they blew it?But this time, if the selection committee wanted to take a stand, shock the world and maybe even do the right thing, it’s sitting right there for them.
The question remains: Is that going to be enough for a two-loss Baylor to pass a Georgia team that has set an AP Top 25 record as the consensus No. 1 team eight weeks in a row?
Strength of schedule/record
|Team ||SOS ||SOR |
|Georgia ||20 ||3 |
|Notre Dame ||52 ||5 |
|Baylor ||34 ||9 |
Georgia has the best strength of schedule by far following its loss to the Crimson Tide. And even that loss wasn't able to keep the Bulldogs from claiming the nation's top strength of record, which ESPN defines as, "the probability that an average top-25 team could achieve a team's record given the particular schedule that team has faced." Basically, it measures the likelihood an average top-25 team could have the same record against a team's given schedule.
What does that mean? Georgia has the strongest overall strength of schedule and has played well enough that only two other teams, Alabama and Michigan — not Notre Dame or Baylor — could claim as good a chance of having the same record against it. Indeed, Georgia still has the highest-ranked margin of victory over any other team in the country, per TeamRankings.com: 28.3 ppg, compared to Notre Dame (17.0 ppg) and Baylor (9.5 ppg).
|Team ||FPI ||Rank |
|Georgia ||28.5 ||1 |
|Notre Dame ||17.1 ||5 |
|Baylor ||11.8 ||18 |
ESPN's FPI rankings show Georgia clearly has the top FPI rating in the country, which ESPN defines as, "a predictive rating system that uses advanced analytics to evaluate team strength." So the higher the rating, the stronger the team.
Georgia still has far and away the top FPI rating at 28.5. Notre Dame's 17.1 rating ranks fifth, while Baylor's 11.8 ranks 18th nationally. Only three other teams rank in the 20s in terms of FPI rating: Alabama (25.5), Michigan (21.3) and two-loss Ohio State (24.3).
Alabama is making the playoff. Michigan is making the playoff. Ohio State, which has two losses and was idle on Saturday, is not. Cincinnati (15.7) will be the other team in the playoff. Ultimately, that's what it comes down to: Georgia has been so dominant for so long that no outcome on Saturday could have kept it out of the playoff.
Notre Dame has only the one loss, and Baylor has a Power 5 conference championship. But that ultimately doesn't match up against Georgia's sustained season-long dominance.
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