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Reviews: household sewn on edge - traffic light coalitionaries have little scope

Beware of the platform edge

 Beware of the platform edge Berlin. From the Chancellery, the proposal is in the room, also in the long-distance traffic of the train and air traffic to the 3G rule. Driving should then only vaccinated, ganzen and tested. Why that is not a good idea. © Kay Nietfeld The train could soon drive for vaccinated, tested and greeting. Beware of the platform edge! Who is not vaccinated, recovered or tested, will stay outside in the future. The idea from the Chancellery to introduce the 3G rule at the train is not convincing.

Berlin. Massive investment in climate protection, digitization and infrastructure, stable pensions and constant taxes - SPD, GREEN and FDP have promised a lot to their voters. But the financial scope in the federal budget are closely closely than wanted to absorb potential traffic light coalitions.

 Der bisherige Bundesfinanzminister Olaf Scholz (SPD) will bald eine mögliche Ampelkoalition anführen, doch im Bundeshaushalt wird das Geld knapp.  © Kay Nietfeld The previous Federal Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD) will soon lead a possible traffic light coalition, but in the federal budget, the money is scarce.

On Friday therefore beats the hour of truth in terms of the financial implementation of many plans: what is feasible and, above all, as it is to be feasible, the potential traffic light coaliene will probably outline for the first time.

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The Corona crisis leaves 2025 deep traces in the budget until the end of the new legislature period. This can be read out of the financial planning of the outgoing federal financial minister and possible future Chancellors Olaf Scholz (SPD). In the current year, the new debt should reach up to 240 billion euros, for the coming year again 100 billion euros of new debts are planned. Only from 2023 to the constitutional debt brake should be respected again. Then Scholz wants to make only five billion euros debts, in the years each twelve. It will already be a Hercules task anyway, after a three-digit billion sum to new debts 2023 to come back near the black zero.

Already Scholz 'Previous financial planning, however, contains a lot of optimistic assumptions that do not have to enter. The budget compensation from 2023 succeeds only by completely dissolving the so-called asylum reserve of 48 billion euros. So it is no longer available for other purposes. In addition, Scholz assumes that the ministries do not even spend a total of six billion euros annually, because they did not manage that in recent years. In addition, Scholz has prescribed the ministries in the years to 2025 unrealistic savings courses. The budget of the Ministry of Defense, whose expenditure would have to continue to grow for a commitment to NATO, should decrease between 2022 and 2025 from 50 to 46.7 billion euros.

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At the same time, the allowance of the unemployed, health, nursing and pension insurance as a result of the unfavorable demographic development and expensive social reforms as the pension with the 63nd stroke increase is already open by 2025 the financing of 86 billion euros without the election promises of the Possible traffic light coaliors are considered at all, the Federal Court of Auditors has been attributed in an opinion. The Institute of German Economics (IW) also has excluded what the most important election promises of SPD, Greens and FDP would also cost. It came to more than 100 billion euros to 2025.

The possible future government coalition can refer to some positive developments in its calculations, but at least some positive developments: this year is a significantly lower new debt as the planned: instead of 240 billion euros it could be on End significantly less than 200 billion, because many corona helps are not retrieved. According to less corona debt, the federal government will have to pay in the future. Also in many non-corona-conditioned promotional pots, for example, at the digital pact for schools are unused billions. In addition, the tax revenues will probably develop better in the current year than expected. And in the coming year, a record growth of four to five percent with a record employment is expected.

seaports demand strong expansion of the rail network

 seaports demand strong expansion of the rail network The German seaports require considerably larger investments in the expansion of the German rail network from the new federal government - in the interest of climate protection and reliability of the currently extremely disturbed supply chains. © Marcus Brandt / DPA The container terminal in the Hamburg harbor. "If more traffic is to go to the rail, then we need more rail," said the President of the Central Association of the German Seaports Operations (ZDS), Frank Dreeke, in Hamburg.

All in all, the traffic light coalition is likely to be able to implement your various output plans only if you can relax the previous handling of debt brake creatively. In conversation, SPD and Greens are above all so-called investment companies that could be faulted instead of the federal government, so that these loans strictly not under the debt brake fell. The plans are controversial because this would create new side households. Especially the FDP is likely to do that hard. The liberals had given as a red line for the negotiations that the debt brake is not softened. However, they also want to stimulate the necessary massive private investitions in climate protection and digitization with a generous depreciation program that will lead to high revenue.

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