Offbeat: hardening of sentences for Russian deserters: "a sign of feverishness" by Vladimir Putin, analyzes an ex-political adviser from NATO

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Alexis Vahlas does not think that "this regime can continue for a long time" because the Russian president begins " to scare its population ".

  Durcissement des peines pour les déserteurs russes : © supplied by Franceinfo

weighing down sanctions against the deserters, "it is a sign of feverishness" by Vladimir Putin, "we see effects that are dangerous for his power", explains Alexis Vahlas, former political advisor of operations operations Military and civilians of NATO and the European Union, Sunday September 25 on Franceinfo. Alexis Vahlas, who is also responsible for the security course of Europe and international stability in Sciencespo Strasbourg, "does not think that this regime can continue for a long time".

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Vladimir Putin has signed a decree that weighs down the sorrows for Russian deserters or those who refuse to fight during mobilization. The text which entered into force on Saturday provides up to 10 years in prison. These legislative changes come when Russia has declared this week a partial mobilization of reservists to fight in Ukraine.

Franceinfo: What do you think of Vladimir Putin's decision?

Alexis Vahlas: is a sign of feverishness. There is a certain continuity in its actions. We continue to deny the fact that there are military defeats, and we continue to scare the West. It's part of his game but the problem is that he starts to scare his population. We knew it was cleared but here we see effects that are dangerous for its power.

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What impact can this decree have on the morale of Russian troops?

For those who are on the ground it will not change things. But if you only go there because you want to avoid prison, it is not a sufficient motivation to make a good fighter and live a traumatic war episode.

The Russian men who flee the mobilization will prevent Vladimir Putin from achieving its objective of 300,000 additional men?

Maybe this will not prevent it directly but it continues to weaken a regime that is authoritarian and has no more-offs. Even during the Soviet Union, apart from the Stalinist period, we have never seen that. We do not know what is happening inside, what other economic, political forces close to the Russian presidency think.

"I think everything can happen and that one day there will be a cutting up as there has been a destalinization. The system has been completely dysfunctional on the economic level for decades. We see how deficient it is on the Military plan. I don't think this regime can continue for a long time. "

Alexis Vahlas, former political and civil operations adviser from NATO

to Franceinfo

The allies of Vladimir Putin, notably India and China, are they changing positions?

This is a very important point. On the moral and legal level, there is a strong disappointment to see this China which for 15 years plays the card of multilateralism, respect for the UN Charter and which there says nothing in the face of such a violation. But from a political point of view it may be very useful because who can keep the Russian president in respect today? It's China. We know that there is coordination about this crisis between Americans and Chinese. So maybe these are the most effective Chinese today to say that the red line is "no use of nuclear weapons".

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