How Biden is winning
Joe Biden refuses to play into Donald Trump’s hands.My question was simple. Democrats don’t have a path to 60 seats in the Senate. So how will Biden keep his agenda from dying at the hands of the filibuster? Would he support filibuster reform, or elimination? Biden’s reply was his campaign in miniature, reflecting both the instincts that have made him successful and the caution that has frustrated many on the left.
A new poll finds President Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden tied in Georgia, a traditionally red state that has not gone for the Democratic presidential nominee since 1992. © The Hill Trump and Biden tied in Georgia: poll
The latest Monmouth University survey finds Trump and Biden each at 47 percent support, with 3 percent supporting Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 3 percent undecided.
Forty-two percent of Trump's supporters say they're certain to vote for him, compared to 39 percent of Biden's supporters. Forty-five percent of voters say there's no way they'll vote for Trump, and 44 percent said the same of the former vice president.
'Tossup in Texas': Biden leads Trump by one point in Lone Star State, according to new poll
The results of the Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday put Joe Biden and Donald Trump in a virtual tie with voters in Texas.The Quinnipiac University poll, conducted from July 16 to July 20, found that 45% of self-described registered Texas voters back Biden and 44% support Trump, a virtual tie. The same poll last month found an equally close race, with Trump leading Biden by one point, 44%-43%.
Both candidates have overwhelming support from within their own parties. Ninety-six percent of Democrats support Biden, and 92 percent of Republicans support Trump.
Biden leads by 22 points among independents, 53 to 31. Black voters support Biden over Trump by 84 points, while Trump leads by 42 points among white voters. Trump has a 51-point advantage among white non-college graduates, and a 23-point advantage among white college graduates.
In the 14 counties that were decided by less than 10 points in 2016, Biden holds a 58 to 38 advantage, bolstered by his huge margins in the Atlanta suburbs.
"There is a lot of parity between the two candidates," said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. "Trump has a lock on his base but Biden is performing much better than Clinton did in key swing areas."
Trump backs down on payroll tax cut
Could a vaccine be Trump’s October surprise? - Politico: “President Donald Trump’s bet that a proven-effective coronavirus vaccine will be the October surprise to catapult him into a second term is facing increasingly long odds. But that doesn’t mean he won’t find just enough reason to declare victory anyway.
When the Monmouth poll is adjusted to forecast a high-turnout election, Trump edges Biden 48 to 47. When a low-turnout election is forecast, Trump leads 49 to 46.
The president's approval rating is at 46 percent in the poll - several points better than he does nationally - with 45 percent disapproving of the job he has done in office. Meanwhile, Biden's approval rating in the poll is underwater at 41 positive and 46 negative.
Trump also has an advantage in enthusiasm - 47 percent of Republicans say they're energized to vote, compared to 36 percent of Democrats. Forty-eight percent of GOP voters say they're optimistic about the 2020 presidential election, compared to 29 percent of Democrats who said the same.
Beyond the White House race, there are also two competitive Senate races in Georgia this year, making it a key state in the battle for control of the Senate.
Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) leads Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff by 6 points in the Monmouth poll, 49 percent to 43 percent.
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) leads a crowded field of candidates in a "jungle" primary vying to replace retired Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.).
Loeffler is at 26 percent, followed by Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.) at 20 percent, Democrat Matt Lieberman at 14 percent, Democrat Raphael Warnock at 9 percent and Democrat Ed Tarver at 5 percent.
If no candidate in the special election surpasses the 50 percent mark, the top two vote-getters will go to a run-off in January.
The Monmouth University survey of 402 registered voters in Georgia was conducted July 23-27 and has a 4.9-point margin of error.
I Observed Joe Biden at Close Range for 20 Years. Here’s How He Wins—and Loses .
With all of Trump’s woes, Biden has a good shot at victory, but he must overcome his history of undisciplined campaigns.Marttila, who was a first-among-equals adviser to Biden due to their long history together, felt his old friend had exactly the right profile to beat Donald Trump. But he worried, both about Trump’s uncanny ability to define his competitors and whether Biden’s sense of old-school propriety and dignity would leave him defenseless against Trump’s tendency to use below-the-belt attacks on anyone who got in his way.