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Politics: Trump and Biden tied in Georgia: poll

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A new poll finds President Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden tied in Georgia, a traditionally red state that has not gone for the Democratic presidential nominee since 1992.

Donald Trump, Joe Biden are posing for a picture: Trump and Biden tied in Georgia: poll © The Hill Trump and Biden tied in Georgia: poll

The latest Monmouth University survey finds Trump and Biden each at 47 percent support, with 3 percent supporting Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 3 percent undecided.

Forty-two percent of Trump's supporters say they're certain to vote for him, compared to 39 percent of Biden's supporters. Forty-five percent of voters say there's no way they'll vote for Trump, and 44 percent said the same of the former vice president.

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Both candidates have overwhelming support from within their own parties. Ninety-six percent of Democrats support Biden, and 92 percent of Republicans support Trump.

Biden leads by 22 points among independents, 53 to 31. Black voters support Biden over Trump by 84 points, while Trump leads by 42 points among white voters. Trump has a 51-point advantage among white non-college graduates, and a 23-point advantage among white college graduates.

In the 14 counties that were decided by less than 10 points in 2016, Biden holds a 58 to 38 advantage, bolstered by his huge margins in the Atlanta suburbs.

"There is a lot of parity between the two candidates," said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. "Trump has a lock on his base but Biden is performing much better than Clinton did in key swing areas."

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When the Monmouth poll is adjusted to forecast a high-turnout election, Trump edges Biden 48 to 47. When a low-turnout election is forecast, Trump leads 49 to 46.

The president's approval rating is at 46 percent in the poll - several points better than he does nationally - with 45 percent disapproving of the job he has done in office. Meanwhile, Biden's approval rating in the poll is underwater at 41 positive and 46 negative.

Trump also has an advantage in enthusiasm - 47 percent of Republicans say they're energized to vote, compared to 36 percent of Democrats. Forty-eight percent of GOP voters say they're optimistic about the 2020 presidential election, compared to 29 percent of Democrats who said the same.

Beyond the White House race, there are also two competitive Senate races in Georgia this year, making it a key state in the battle for control of the Senate.

Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) leads Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff by 6 points in the Monmouth poll, 49 percent to 43 percent.

Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) leads a crowded field of candidates in a "jungle" primary vying to replace retired Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.).

Loeffler is at 26 percent, followed by Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.) at 20 percent, Democrat Matt Lieberman at 14 percent, Democrat Raphael Warnock at 9 percent and Democrat Ed Tarver at 5 percent.

If no candidate in the special election surpasses the 50 percent mark, the top two vote-getters will go to a run-off in January.

The Monmouth University survey of 402 registered voters in Georgia was conducted July 23-27 and has a 4.9-point margin of error.

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