How screwed are Democrats in the Senate?
The challenges the party will face in keeping its majorities in 2022 and 2024.The party currently controls half the seats in the chamber, giving them, with Vice President Harris’s tie-breaking vote, the narrowest possible majority. But some in the party — like pollster David Shor, recently profiled by Ezra Klein in the New York Times — believe demographic trends put Democrats at grave risk of falling into a deep hole over the next two election cycles.
“So why are Democrats now in a better position to make that scenario a reality? A combination of a continued decline in the national political environment for Trump coupled with strong fundraising numbers by a slew of Democratic challengers.”
With Sanders or Warren it'll happen. Bringing out non voters is how democrats win big, and either of them can do that. Trump will drive down Republican turnout and the Democrats need a candidate who can capitalize on it.
The former first lady may be the best hope for Democrats in winning back the White House. Her pedigree certainly stands up to that of our current president. Educated at Princeton University and Harvard Law School, Obama began her career at one of the nation’s most prestigious law firms, Sidley Austin.
Hillary's problem was she had been in goverment for far to long, with the attack ads literally writing themselves. The Democrats need fresh blood. Perhaps it's not Michelle, but it certainly is not someone with a decade of political baggage that's in the mid 50's, tell you that right now .
In politics, success tends to beget success. That truism apparently eluded leftwing Democrats on Sept. 30 when they refused to vote for President Biden's $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. © Greg Nash President Biden listens to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) after a Democratic Caucus meeting at the Capitol to discuss the bipartisan infrastructure plan on Friday, October 1, 2021.
Instead of basking in accolades for having passed a second landmark achievement to go with Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, Democrats are treating the public to an extended exhibition of their inability to forge the internal consensus necessary to govern.
Smearing Popularism Does Not Help Black Voters
Persuasively rebutting David Shor requires scrutinizing his arguments, not stigmatizing them.People like me — city-dwelling college graduates who know what a “Senate parliamentarian” is — comprise an extremely small share of the American population. But we are damn near the only people who earn a living by writing about politics, or helping the Democratic Party win elections.
So why are Democrats now in a better position to make that scenario a reality? A combination of a continued decline in the national political environment for Trump coupled with strong fundraising numbers by a slew of Democratic challengers.
As Gonzales noted in his recent overview of the state of the Senate playing field: "Individually, each of those races has its challenges, whether it be a strong incumbent, unproven Democratic candidates, or the political lean of the state. But when taken collectively, that Democrats need to win (or Republicans need to find a way to lose) less than 20
We don't need to win over republicans to win midterms. We just have to reduce the number who stay home.
There would be a Democrat in the Oval Office now if Dems hadn't bent over backwards to foist Hilary on everyone. Never forget: "elevating" Donald Trump in the media was a Clinton campaign strategy. She wanted the contest to come down to a Clinton-Trump match so she could scare everyone into voting for her.
Even as clogged U.S. ports and long delays in delivering goods of all kinds underscore the urgent need for upgrading the nation's economic infrastructure, the Congressional Progressive Caucus vows to persist in blocking the bill if they don't get their way on a follow-on reconciliation bill that would spend trillions more on new social entitlements and climate protection.
That's sewn anger and mistrust among moderate House Democrats, who were promised a vote and stood ready to pass the infrastructure bill last month. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) set a new deadline for a vote - Halloween, fittingly enough. To arrest the administration's faltering momentum, Democrats need a big political win, and soon.
Buffeted by vaccine hesitancy and the delta variant's surge, as well as the chaotic U.S. exit from Afghanistan, the president's approval ratings have tumbled by 10 points since June. That's a worry for Democratic candidates, especially former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who's locked in a tight race for a second term in a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020.
Why can't congressional Democrats deliver more on their promises? It's complicated.
Political scientists explain why congressional Democrats aren't making more progress on their priorities and President Joe Biden's big agenda. They had promised action on voting, elections and policing reform, on immigration and infrastructure. They touted sweeping programs now in Democrats' social spending bills, addressing issues they said Americans care about most, from child care to climate change.
If the Democratic Party wants to win elections in the long term, it needs to have a platform that is pro- Democrat , rather than anti-Republican. Does that mean that the Democrats will move farther to the left?
QUESTION: What are the Democrats going to do now that they have a majority in both houses? ANSWER: Because it’s a razor thin majority, and there’s so much destruction to undo from the Trump farce and the McConnell obstructionism, it’s safe to say that the primary focus will be a return to normalcy - restoring the government to what has traditionally worked fairly well for decades, with some
Now they need to quash the impeach and resist temptation and unite around an aspirational message.
These are not confidence inducing narratives for a party that hopes to win control of the House in November. It will be at least a month before election results in California are certified, but the preliminary figures are troublesome for Democrats .
The impasse over infrastructure is odd in two respects. First, progressives claim they too want to spend big on nation-building at home. But it doesn't seem to be their top priority. Their message couldn't be clearer: Redistributing wealth takes precedence over strengthening the economy. Is that really the message Democrats want to run on in next year's midterm elections?
Even more perplexing, the White House, and sometimes the president himself, seemed to encourage leftist obstruction as a way of pressuring two moderate Democratic senators, Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.), into supporting the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill.
The strong-arm tactics haven't worked, and have left bruised feelings among not only the senators but also many moderate House Democrats who also don't support the entire progressive wish list. Now the fate of both bills is uncertain as the White House belatedly struggles to broker a compromise that balances the needs of both leftwing and centrist Democrats.
Democrats Are Turning Their Big Spending Bill Into Absolute Trash
They could permanently improve the safety net. They're blowing it.As the party began trying to piece together its big social-spending and climate package, a split emerged between lawmakers who wanted to pass fewer programs (but do them well) and those who wanted to pass more programs (even if it means doing them poorly). A big part of this argument boiled down to how long policies should be funded for. The less-is-more crowd, dominated by party moderates, wanted to set policies in place permanently.
As democrats , I really feel like we need to accept the possibility that Biden may be the leading candidate. Are we going to give into infighting like in 2016? I'm not huge on Biden but if he's our new Hilary then holy fuck, please vote regardless. He may not be your ideal president but we need a
I was about to correct you and say Jeb was never doing as well as Biden is now but damn, I totally forgot he was actually a real contender in the polls at one point (I thought I remembered him just fundraising well but never having actual support). You might be right. I could see Biden flaming out before primary
What we've witnessed is anything but a deft exercise in coalition management. Despite all the heady rhetoric about ushering in "transformative change," it was never likely that Democrats would pass changes on a New Deal scale with razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate.
What's more, Democrats representing battleground districts and states face electorates that are skeptical of the left's big tax and spending ambitions. Since they make the difference between their party being in the majority or out of power, their values and interests also must be accommodated.
Nonetheless, it's hard not to sympathize with President Biden's desire to "go big" in helping Americans hit hard by the long COVID-19 pandemic and recession. That's a tribute to his empathy, and fortunately for him and the country, it's a goal he can still achieve.
The imperative now is to get both bills unstuck by persuading progressives to compromise on a reconciliation package with a price tag between $1.9 trillion and $2.3 trillion. Democrats need to fashion a more disciplined and focused reconciliation package that aims at doing a few things right rather than throwing money at a plethora of new entitlements.
Ahead of midterms, Democrats feel pressure to pass citizenship
Democrats have pinned their hopes on passing a pathway to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants through the budget reconciliation process, which would allow them to deliver long-promised revisions to the immigration system on a party-line vote. If they succeed, analysts say it could provide the party with a critical victory to motivate voters ahead […] The post Ahead of midterms, Democrats feel pressure to pass citizenship appeared first on Roll Call.
A blueprint at the Progressive Policy Institute, where I serve as president, sets three core, progressive priorities: supporting working families and children, combating climate change and expanding access to affordable health care for those in need. It would cost roughly $2 trillion and could plausibly be paid for by raising taxes on the wealthy and strengthening federal tax compliance.
A Build Back Better package totaling between $2 trillion and $3 trillion for both bills is within striking distance for Biden and his party. Only on the dreamscape of democratic socialism can spending of that magnitude be considered chump change. By historical standards, it's big change.
The left's latest gambit is to pass all the programs in their original $3.5 trillion grab bag but set them to expire after a few years so they appear less expensive in the Congressional Budget Office's official 10-year score. This is bad policy that would make it easier for a future Republican Congress to simply let programs expire rather than trying to abolish them, as Republicans failed to do with ObamaCare.
"For President Biden's legacy, it's important to make these longer-term investments and not have short-term cliffs," said Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), leader of the mainstream New Democrat Coalition.
The "haircut" gimmick is also dubious politics, because it's harder to communicate to voters a clear rationale for a jumble of smallish or temporary new programs than a few big initiatives with real power to change lives.
Democrats control the White House and, however tenuously, Congress. They don't have the luxury of endless negotiations aimed at appeasing the left. To regain political momentum, Democrats need a win. The best way to get one is to pass the infrastructure bill as soon as possible and work on a pragmatic reconciliation bill that better reflects their philosophically diverse coalition.
Will Marshall is president and founder of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI).
New 2020 Autopsy: Demographics Won’t Save Democrats .
In Nevada, high turnout made the electorate more diverse but no more Democratic, while in Wisconsin white working-class Democrats kept dying off.But Democrats do have one tailwind at their backs: demographics. America’s rising generations are less white, religious, or conservative than any of their predecessors. The biases of America’s legislative institutions may be on the GOP’s side, but time is on the Democrats.