- Joe Biden plans to seek reelection in 2024, even though voters are souring on him.
- Democrats aren't expected to primary Biden, but questions linger about a backup plan.
- Would-be candidates have been seeking the national spotlight.
President Joe Biden has been clear that he plans to run for a second term in 2024.
Chances of Democrat Beating Ron DeSantis With 1 Month to Primary: Polls
Multiple recent polls show a close race although the Republican incumbent is seen by many as the favorite to win in the midterm.Four Democrats are seeking their party's nomination to run against DeSantis in November: Congressman Charlie Crist, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried, consultant Cadance Daniel, and teacher and minister Robert Lee Willis. Crist, who served as Florida's governor from 2007 to 2011, and Fried are seen as the frontrunners in the race.
His political team is even getting ready for a spring reelection announcement, according to the Washington Post.
But that hasn't stopped the "will he really?" chatter, particularly after a New York Times poll found that 61% of Democrats said they hoped someone other than Biden would be their nominee in 2024, largely because of his age and job performance.
Democratic insiders are questioning whether Biden, 79, can mount a vigorous campaign in 2024 — especially if former President Donald Trump decides to run again.
Despite the doubts, Biden is not expected to face a primary challenge given that it would alienate other people in the party as well as the donor class, said Mark Jones, Rice University political science professor and Baker Institute fellow.
"The norm is that you do not challenge a sitting president from your party," Jones said. "That's a major political faux pas. It either isn't done, or if it is done it's done more for political ambition — not to actually win, but to put the spotlight on yourself for other reasons."
Gov. Larry Hogan said if Trump announces a 2024 run before the midterms GOP governors worry it will 'cost us seats'
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan said "it's going to cost us seats" if Trump announces a run, adding: "After all, he lost to Joe Biden, which is hard to do.""We had discussions about that at the Republican Governors Association last week," Hogan said during an interview with ABC's "This Week" on Sunday.
A key factor helping Biden's staying power is Trump. The New York Times poll found that Biden would be favored to win in another contest against Trump.
"The belief is Biden beat Trump before, he can beat him again," Jones said. If a Democrat were to try to primary Biden — and weaken him in the process — then that person would be blamed if a Republican, even Trump, were to win in 2024.
But none of these factors rule out politicians' making under-the-radar moves. If Biden somehow reverses his plans, that'll mean the party will need to find a backup.
Some ways that candidates begin to test the field through "invisible primaries" are by campaigning for other Democrats to build loyalty, particularly in swing districts. They also may appear at events in potential early voting states and offer noncommittal responses about whether they'll support Biden in 2024, said Shawn Donahue, a University at Buffalo assistant professor of political science.
Other ways are through grabbing headlines through weighing in on national debates, holding leadership roles in the party, and raising huge sums particularly from out-of-staters. In the case of governors interested in the White House, they'll need to crush the opposition if they're up for reelection this year, in November.
Trump v. DeSantis: Young conservatives debate GOP's future
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — When former President Donald Trump took the stage before a crowd of more than 5,000 young conservative activists in Tampa this weekend, he received the rock star's welcome he’s grown accustomed to over the seven years in which he’s reshaped the Republican Party. One night earlier, it was Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis who had the crowd on its feet as he headlined the day's program at Turning Point USA’s annual Student Action Summit. © Provided by Associated Press Ryan Malone, right, of Venice, Fla.
"There will be a host of people who want to be waiting in the wings so the moment Biden says he's not running they can sort of jump in," Jones said.
Even if Biden doesn't change his mind, 2028 isn't much further off.
Here are 15 politicians who are taking actions or gaining interest that might position them for a 2024 White House run if Biden changes his mind:
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