- Joe Biden plans to seek reelection in 2024, even though voters are souring on him.
- Democrats aren't expected to primary Biden, but questions linger about a backup plan.
- Would-be candidates have been seeking the national spotlight.
President Joe Biden has been clear that he plans to run for a second term in 2024.
Top House Democrat reiterates belief that Biden won't run in 2024
President Joe Biden is not running for reelection in 2024, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) claimed in an interview published over the weekend. Maloney, who chairs the House Oversight and Reform Committee, is currently in the fight of her political life against Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) and businessman Suraj Patel as all three seek the Democratic Party's nomination for New York's newly drawn 12th Congressional District. The new map, implemented by the state earlier this year, has placed numerous New York Democrats up against each other.
His political team is even getting ready for a spring reelection announcement, according to the Washington Post.
But that hasn't stopped the "will he really?" chatter, particularly after a New York Times poll found that 61% of Democrats said they hoped someone other than Biden would be their nominee in 2024, largely because of his age and job performance.
Democratic insiders are questioning whether Biden, 79, can mount a vigorous campaign in 2024 — especially if former President Donald Trump decides to run again.
Despite the doubts, Biden is not expected to face a primary challenge given that it would alienate other people in the party as well as the donor class, said Mark Jones, Rice University political science professor and Baker Institute fellow.
Super PAC money pouring into Dem congressional primary between NYS Sen. Biaggi and Rep. Patrick Maloney
Democratic Bronx State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi is calling on Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney to condemn a swell of outside cash and a “pro-Trump” police-backed Super PAC that recently spent hundreds of thousands in support of the sitting congressman. The Police Benevolent Association of the City of New York has poured $416,000 into the primary for New York’s 17th Congressional District. Digital ads and mailers funded by the group paint Biaggi as “an anti-police extremist.” © Provided by New York Daily News State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi, D-Bronx, speaks to state legislators on Feb. 13, 2019, in Albany, N.Y. State Sen.
"The norm is that you do not challenge a sitting president from your party," Jones said. "That's a major political faux pas. It either isn't done, or if it is done it's done more for political ambition — not to actually win, but to put the spotlight on yourself for other reasons."
A key factor helping Biden's staying power is Trump. The New York Times poll found that Biden would be favored to win in another contest against Trump.
"The belief is Biden beat Trump before, he can beat him again," Jones said. If a Democrat were to try to primary Biden — and weaken him in the process — then that person would be blamed if a Republican, even Trump, were to win in 2024.
But none of these factors rule out politicians' making under-the-radar moves. If Biden somehow reverses his plans, that'll mean the party will need to find a backup.
Some ways that candidates begin to test the field through "invisible primaries" are by campaigning for other Democrats to build loyalty, particularly in swing districts. They also may appear at events in potential early voting states and offer noncommittal responses about whether they'll support Biden in 2024, said Shawn Donahue, a University at Buffalo assistant professor of political science.
The president of Ukraine's Athletics Federation, who is fighting in the war, says he feels 'great' dropping bombs on Russian soldiers
Yevhen Pronin is part of a drone team known as the "Tactical Busters" which has a Russian bounty on its head because of its success. "If we do not kill them, they can kill our children, they can kill us," he told The Times of England.
Other ways are through grabbing headlines through weighing in on national debates, holding leadership roles in the party, and raising huge sums particularly from out-of-staters. In the case of governors interested in the White House, they'll need to crush the opposition if they're up for reelection this year, in November.
"There will be a host of people who want to be waiting in the wings so the moment Biden says he's not running they can sort of jump in," Jones said.
Even if Biden doesn't change his mind, 2028 isn't much further off.
Here are 15 politicians who are taking actions or gaining interest that might position them for a 2024 White House run if Biden changes his mind:
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