US: Demography: Discover the regions where the population should grow by 2070

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Dans une étude publiée jeudi, l'Insee anticipe que les régions de France qui devraient connaître un accroissement de la population d'ici à 2070 sont le Midi, la façade atlantique, l'Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes et l'Île-de-France. À l'inverse, l'institut prévoit un déclin démographique dans le Nord, l'Est et le centre. © Lilian Cazabet / Hans Lucas / Hans Lucas via AFP in a study published Thursday, INSEE anticipates that the regions of France which should experience an increase Of the population by 2070 are at noon, the Atlantic facade, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Île-de-France. Conversely, the Institute provides for a demographic decline in the north, the east and the center.

at noon, the Atlantic facade, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Ile-de-France are the regions of France where The population should continue to grow by 2070, anticipates INSEE in a published study Thursday, which, on the contrary, plans a demographic decline in the north, the east and the center. The population should increase "significantly in the southern and western France regions, in particular in Occitania, the Pays de la Loire, Corsica, Brittany and New Aquitaine", affirm the authors of the 'study.

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the average annual growth rate in these regions should be between 0.13 and 0.25%, provides the study, based On the hypothesis of regular life expectancy gains, and a fertility rate which would remain roughly at its current level, or 1.8 children per woman.

6.7 million in Occitania in 2070

On the other hand, in Normandy, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and in the Grand Est, the population would decrease almost 0.30% on average each year, according to INSEE, which publishes projections detailed by region. Occitania would thus have 6.7 million inhabitants in 2070, an increase of 14%, "the strongest in the regions of mainland France". In Brittany, the population "would increase until the mid -2050s and then folded down slightly until 2070", an overall gain of 8.5% in 50 years.

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Conversely, the Grand Est and Burgundy-Franche-Comté should lose around 14% of their population by 2070, and the Hauts-de-France 10%.

Possible drop in population in France by 2044

at the national level, the French population as a whole should continue to grow until 2044, but demographic aging will then lead to the decline, in any case if fertility And the migratory balance remain at their current levels. "Alternative scenarios" can certainly be envisaged, especially if we retain the idea of ​​higher fertility, which would be the consequence that the population would increase or maintain themselves in all regions.

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however, "the classification between regions according to the rate of evolution between 2018 and 2070 would remain identical regardless of the scenario", analyzes the INSEE : "The developments of the population in the southern and western regions would always be the most positive". And whatever the regions, the aging of the French population seems inevitable: "In 64 departments, more than 30% of the inhabitants would be aged 65 or over in 2070, while no department is in this situation in 2018 ", notes the study.

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